Analysis & Articles
Original, hand-written analysis, methodology and previews around the 2026 World Cup — editorial pieces, not templated output.
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Knockout bracket watch: what changes once the last 32 is official
2026-06-26
The World Cup expands into a 32-team knockout phase. Here is how to read the official bracket, the model reference, and the rating shifts once elimination games begin.
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Matchday 1's biggest rating movers: signal or noise?
2026-06-15
After the opening round, our power-rating model repriced six teams hard. Here's where the movement looks like a real shift in standard and where it's likely just one loud game.
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Group C: is Scotland's lead the real thing?
2026-06-15
On paper the most top-heavy group at the tournament, Group C is led by Scotland after one round while Brazil and Morocco cancelled out. How much of this holds?
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Group D: the tightest group at the tournament
2026-06-15
Just 110 rating points separate all four teams in Group D — the narrowest spread of any group. No minnow, no juggernaut. So why did the opening round split so cleanly?
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Three dark horses the bracket may be underrating
2026-06-15
Among the teams rated 1800–1930 — good but not among the favourites — which ones have the profile to punch through the bracket and go further than expected? My three picks.
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Host nations report card: USA, Mexico, Canada
2026-06-15
Three co-hosts, three different opening rounds. How did the United States, Mexico and Canada start their home World Cup — and what grade does each one earn so far?
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The 48-team format, explained
2026-06-15
Twelve groups, a round of 32, and the best third-placed teams: a plain-language guide to how the expanded World Cup actually works — and what it means for strong and weak sides alike.
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How our World Cup 2026 rating model works
2026-06-15
A plain-language walkthrough of the Elo-style power rating and Poisson score reference behind every team and match page on this site — what it does, what it ignores, and how to read it.