One number tells you why Group D is different: 110. That's the rating gap between the strongest and weakest team in the group — from United States at the top to Paraguay at the bottom. For comparison, the most lopsided group at this tournament spans nearly 490 points. Group D has no rabbit and no wolf. Everyone can beat everyone.

Why level groups are harder to call

Counter-intuitively, a tight group is the hardest to predict, not the easiest. When ratings are close, the model's edge for any one match is small — and the things it deliberately ignores (a red card, a set-piece, a bad night) carry proportionally more weight. In a group with a clear favourite, chance has to overcome a big gap to produce an upset. Here there is barely a gap to overcome, so single-game variance can decide everything.

Reading the opening round

The first round looked like a split — two wins, two losses, no draws — but look closer. United States and Australia both won; Türkiye and Paraguay both lost. That isn't a shock result so much as the two slightly weaker performances on the day coming up short. The eye-catcher is Türkiye's −35: the model dropped them harder than anyone. Overreaction? I don't think so. The talent in that squad is real, but a 0–2 to Australia with nothing created is a genuinely poor outing. Türkiye now have to answer it on the pitch, not in the ratings.

How I'd order them

  • 1. United States — three points and the rating lead, with the home crowd behind them.
  • 2. Australia — three points and the clearest upward momentum of the four after that statement win.
  • 3. Türkiye — still rated highly, but they need to bounce back immediately or the maths turns against them.
  • 4. Paraguay — the gap has widened, but in a 110-point group nobody is out of it yet.

The fixtures that decide it: United States vs Australia in round two, two in-form sides colliding; and Türkiye vs Paraguay, a meeting of the two who lost — effectively a must-win for both.

The takeaway

Group D's real drama is still ahead of it. In a group this level, the second and third rounds can flip the table completely — and that is exactly the appeal. If you want games where the result is genuinely up for grabs, this is the group to follow. Track it on the match list as the picture changes.