WC26 Analysis

Knockout Bracket Reference

Model reference path. Model reference from current power ratings: the 32 qualifiers, seeded by strength and shown through the final. Real results replace model references as matches are played.

Model reference champion
Argentina
Result actually played Reference model analysis
100%

Round of 32

Argentina
Cape Verde
Reference Argentina 96%
Japan
United States
Reference Japan 55%
Germany
Canada
Reference Germany 88%
Colombia
Iran
Reference Colombia 82%
Brazil
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Reference Brazil 95%
Croatia
Ecuador
Reference Croatia 74%
England 0
Ghana 0
Result
Mexico
Ivory Coast
Reference Mexico 75%
France
South Africa
Reference France 96%
Switzerland
Austria
Reference Switzerland 65%
Netherlands
Egypt
Reference Netherlands 93%
Belgium
Algeria
Reference Belgium 82%
Spain
Paraguay
Reference Spain 96%
Norway
Sweden
Reference Norway 70%
Portugal
Australia
Reference Portugal 94%
Morocco
South Korea
Reference Morocco 79%

Round of 16

Argentina
Japan
Reference Argentina 94%
Germany
Colombia
Reference Germany 58%
Brazil
Croatia
Reference Brazil 82%
England
Mexico
Reference England 77%
France
Switzerland
Reference France 91%
Netherlands
Belgium
Reference Netherlands 65%
Spain
Norway
Reference Spain 85%
Portugal
Morocco
Reference Portugal 72%

Quarter-finals

Argentina
Germany
Reference Argentina 83%
Brazil
England
Reference Brazil 57%
France
Netherlands
Reference France 73%
Spain
Portugal
Reference Spain 59%

Semi-finals

Argentina
Brazil
Reference Argentina 65%
France
Spain
Reference France 59%

Final

Argentina
France
Reference Argentina 55%

This bracket is a model reference: qualifiers and matchups come from current ratings and are seeded by strength (not official FIFA slotting). It updates as real group results come in and is rebuilt on each deploy. This site provides football data analysis for sports discussion only. It does not provide betting advice, gambling tips, odds, bookmaker links, or guaranteed outcomes.