A dark horse is not a title favourite. It's a side with the ceiling to spring an upset and the draw to make a run if it does. The 1800–1930 rating band is where these teams live: strong enough to trouble anyone on the day, far enough from the top that the bracket quietly underrates their path. Here are the three I'd watch.
1. Japan (1857)
Japan opened with a 2–2 draw against the Netherlands — proof that they can stand toe-to-toe with an elite European side rather than merely survive against one. Their game is built on fluent organisation, a disciplined back line and a collective identity that doesn't depend on one star. Group F is navigable, and if Japan come through it, the early knockout draw could open onto softer opposition than their rating suggests. They tend to be slotted in as plucky participants; the ceiling is higher than that.
2. Morocco (1908)
At the top of the dark-horse band, Morocco already have evidence on the board: a 1–1 draw with Brazil in their opener, achieved without over-committing. The semi-final run from 2022 is recent enough that the core knows how to win these games. The catch is the group — they may have to come through as runners-up — but a side that can hold Brazil and pick its moments is one nobody in the last eight would want to draw.
3. Norway (1860)
Drawn alongside France, Norway face a clear assignment: win the games they're expected to and steal a result where they can. The attacking line, led from the front, gives them a puncher's chance against anyone. The whole campaign likely hinges on taking care of Iraq and getting something from Senegal; do that, and a runners-up finish could hand them a more beatable knockout opponent.
If I had to pick one
Japan. Their rating sits in the middle of the band rather than at the top, which is precisely where the underrating lives — there's room to be better than the number. They already have a result against the Netherlands to point to, the Asian qualification route can offer a kinder seeding, and emerging from a non-elite group can leave a flatter path through the knockouts. None of that is a guarantee — it's a profile. But of the three, it's the profile I'd pick. Trace the possible routes on the bracket reference.