🇺🇸 United States
Rating · Rank #18
Paraguay 🇵🇾
Rating · Rank #35
Draw share: 22%. Model: Elo result distribution + Poisson score reference, re-calibrated after each played match. This site provides football data analysis for sports discussion only. It does not provide betting advice, gambling tips, odds, bookmaker links, or guaranteed outcomes.
Match preview
United States and Paraguay have played their Group D fixture, finishing 4–1. The pre-match model reference was 1–0, with the model getting the result right.
The result re-calibrates both ratings (United States 1852, Paraguay 1724) and feeds the projections for the rest of the group, where the model now has United States finishing 1st and Paraguay 3rd.
Match context and talking points
This fixture has already finished 4-1, so the notes below work as post-match context alongside the final score. The model currently places United States 1st in Group D and Paraguay 3rd, making the result relevant to qualification pressure and margin for error in later games.
United States's main strengths are Home-field advantage and Athletic midfield options, while the chief concern to watch is Pressure of hosting and Inconsistent chance creation. For Paraguay, the standout qualities are Defensive discipline and Physical duels, with Low scoring margin and Limited creative depth the area to monitor.
Stylistically, the two sides contrast. United States: Athletic and high-energy, pressing hard and attacking with pace. Paraguay: Compact, combative and organised, thriving on set pieces and counterattacks.
Strength comparison
United States are the stronger side on our ratings, by 128 points.
Team data for this matchup
- FIFA rank
- 17th
- Head coach
- Mauricio Pochettino
- Key player
- Christian Pulisic
- Qualified
- CONCACAF (co-host)
- Best World Cup
- Third place (1930)
Overview: The United States enter WC26 as co-hosts with a deep, Europe-based core and elevated expectations.
World Cup history: The US are making their 12th World Cup appearance and reached the Round of 16 in 2010, 2014 and 2022. Their best modern-era finish remains the 2002 quarter-final run.
Recent form: As hosts, the US did not play qualifying and used the 2025 Gold Cup and 2026 friendlies to prepare. They reached the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup final before losing to Mexico.
2026 angle: Home advantage raises expectations, but the central question is whether a talented player pool can become a coherent tournament team. Group D gives the US immediate tests against Paraguay, Australia and Türkiye.
- Home-field advantage
- Athletic midfield options
- High-level club experience
- Pressure of hosting
- Inconsistent chance creation
- FIFA rank
- 41st
- Head coach
- Gustavo Alfaro
- Key player
- Miguel Almirón
- Qualified
- CONMEBOL (South America)
- Best World Cup
- Quarter-finals (2010)
Overview: Paraguay return as a disciplined, combative CONMEBOL side.
World Cup history: Paraguay are back at the World Cup for the first time since 2010, when they reached the quarter-finals. They have a history of awkward, low-margin tournament football.
Recent form: Paraguay qualified sixth in CONMEBOL, enough for a direct berth in the expanded format, with high-profile qualifying wins over Brazil and Argentina.
2026 angle: They open Group D against co-host United States and can make the group uncomfortable with compact defending and direct attacking moments. Their main task is turning defensive structure into enough goals.
- Defensive discipline
- Physical duels
- Counterattacking threat
- Low scoring margin
- Limited creative depth