🇹🇷 Türkiye
Rating · Rank #25
Paraguay 🇵🇾
Rating · Rank #35
Draw share: 23%. Model: Elo result distribution + Poisson score reference, re-calibrated after each played match. This site provides football data analysis for sports discussion only. It does not provide betting advice, gambling tips, odds, bookmaker links, or guaranteed outcomes.
Match preview
Türkiye and Paraguay have played their Group D fixture, finishing 0–1. The pre-match model reference was 1–0, against the model's reference.
The result re-calibrates both ratings (Türkiye 1787, Paraguay 1724) and feeds the projections for the rest of the group, where the model now has Türkiye finishing 4th and Paraguay 3rd.
Match context and talking points
This fixture has already finished 0-1, so the notes below work as post-match context alongside the final score. The model currently places Türkiye 4th in Group D and Paraguay 3rd, making the result relevant to qualification pressure and margin for error in later games.
Türkiye's main strengths are Creative attacking midfield and Technical ball circulation, while the chief concern to watch is Defensive transitions and No settled elite striker. For Paraguay, the standout qualities are Defensive discipline and Physical duels, with Low scoring margin and Limited creative depth the area to monitor.
Stylistically, the two sides contrast. Türkiye: Energetic and combative, blending technical attackers with a fierce competitive edge. Paraguay: Compact, combative and organised, thriving on set pieces and counterattacks.
Strength comparison
Türkiye are the stronger side on our ratings, by 63 points.
Team data for this matchup
- FIFA rank
- 22nd
- Head coach
- Vincenzo Montella
- Key player
- Arda Güler
- Qualified
- UEFA play-offs
- Best World Cup
- Third place (2002)
Overview: Türkiye arrive with a young, technical squad built around high-upside attackers and experienced midfield leadership.
World Cup history: Türkiye have a short but memorable World Cup record, highlighted by a third-place finish in 2002. WC26 marks their return to the finals after a long absence.
Recent form: Türkiye qualified through UEFA after finishing second behind Spain in their qualifying group.
2026 angle: They are a live Group D threat because their attacking midfield can unsettle any opponent. Defensive organization and striker efficiency may determine whether they advance cleanly or rely on the expanded third-place route.
- Creative attacking midfield
- Technical ball circulation
- Set-piece quality
- Defensive transitions
- No settled elite striker
- FIFA rank
- 41st
- Head coach
- Gustavo Alfaro
- Key player
- Miguel Almirón
- Qualified
- CONMEBOL (South America)
- Best World Cup
- Quarter-finals (2010)
Overview: Paraguay return as a disciplined, combative CONMEBOL side.
World Cup history: Paraguay are back at the World Cup for the first time since 2010, when they reached the quarter-finals. They have a history of awkward, low-margin tournament football.
Recent form: Paraguay qualified sixth in CONMEBOL, enough for a direct berth in the expanded format, with high-profile qualifying wins over Brazil and Argentina.
2026 angle: They open Group D against co-host United States and can make the group uncomfortable with compact defending and direct attacking moments. Their main task is turning defensive structure into enough goals.
- Defensive discipline
- Physical duels
- Counterattacking threat
- Low scoring margin
- Limited creative depth