WC26 Analysis
Full time Jun 20, 04:00 UTC
Team A

🇹🇷 Türkiye

Rating 1787 · Rank #25

FT 0:1 · Ref 1:0 · different result
0:1
Team B

Paraguay 🇵🇾

Rating 1724 · Rank #35

Model result distribution
58%
23%
18%
Türkiye win Draw Paraguay win
Expected goals 1.75 : 0.85 Türkiye / Paraguay
Model result share 58% · 23% · 18% Türkiye / Draw / Paraguay
Power rating 1787 : 1724 Current model rating
World rank #25 : #35 Among 48 teams

Draw share: 23%. Model: Elo result distribution + Poisson score reference, re-calibrated after each played match. This site provides football data analysis for sports discussion only. It does not provide betting advice, gambling tips, odds, bookmaker links, or guaranteed outcomes.

Match preview

Türkiye and Paraguay have played their Group D fixture, finishing 0–1. The pre-match model reference was 1–0, against the model's reference.

The result re-calibrates both ratings (Türkiye 1787, Paraguay 1724) and feeds the projections for the rest of the group, where the model now has Türkiye finishing 4th and Paraguay 3rd.

Match context and talking points

This fixture has already finished 0-1, so the notes below work as post-match context alongside the final score. The model currently places Türkiye 4th in Group D and Paraguay 3rd, making the result relevant to qualification pressure and margin for error in later games.

Türkiye's main strengths are Creative attacking midfield and Technical ball circulation, while the chief concern to watch is Defensive transitions and No settled elite striker. For Paraguay, the standout qualities are Defensive discipline and Physical duels, with Low scoring margin and Limited creative depth the area to monitor.

Stylistically, the two sides contrast. Türkiye: Energetic and combative, blending technical attackers with a fierce competitive edge. Paraguay: Compact, combative and organised, thriving on set pieces and counterattacks.

Strength comparison

Türkiye 1787
1724 Paraguay

Türkiye are the stronger side on our ratings, by 63 points.

Team data for this matchup

🇹🇷 Türkiye
World rank #25 - Rating 1787
Key facts
FIFA rank
22nd
Head coach
Vincenzo Montella
Key player
Arda Güler
Qualified
UEFA play-offs
Best World Cup
Third place (2002)

Overview: Türkiye arrive with a young, technical squad built around high-upside attackers and experienced midfield leadership.

World Cup history: Türkiye have a short but memorable World Cup record, highlighted by a third-place finish in 2002. WC26 marks their return to the finals after a long absence.

Recent form: Türkiye qualified through UEFA after finishing second behind Spain in their qualifying group.

2026 angle: They are a live Group D threat because their attacking midfield can unsettle any opponent. Defensive organization and striker efficiency may determine whether they advance cleanly or rely on the expanded third-place route.

Strengths
  • Creative attacking midfield
  • Technical ball circulation
  • Set-piece quality
Concerns
  • Defensive transitions
  • No settled elite striker
🇵🇾 Paraguay
World rank #35 - Rating 1724
Key facts
FIFA rank
41st
Head coach
Gustavo Alfaro
Key player
Miguel Almirón
Qualified
CONMEBOL (South America)
Best World Cup
Quarter-finals (2010)

Overview: Paraguay return as a disciplined, combative CONMEBOL side.

World Cup history: Paraguay are back at the World Cup for the first time since 2010, when they reached the quarter-finals. They have a history of awkward, low-margin tournament football.

Recent form: Paraguay qualified sixth in CONMEBOL, enough for a direct berth in the expanded format, with high-profile qualifying wins over Brazil and Argentina.

2026 angle: They open Group D against co-host United States and can make the group uncomfortable with compact defending and direct attacking moments. Their main task is turning defensive structure into enough goals.

Strengths
  • Defensive discipline
  • Physical duels
  • Counterattacking threat
Concerns
  • Low scoring margin
  • Limited creative depth