🇹🇳 Tunisia
Rating · Rank #40
Sweden 🇸🇪
Rating · Rank #21
Draw share: 22%. Model: Elo result distribution + Poisson score reference, re-calibrated after each played match. This site provides football data analysis for sports discussion only. It does not provide betting advice, gambling tips, odds, bookmaker links, or guaranteed outcomes.
Match preview
Tunisia and Sweden have played their Group F fixture, finishing 1–5. The pre-match model reference was 0–1, with the model getting the result right.
The result re-calibrates both ratings (Tunisia 1638, Sweden 1807) and feeds the projections for the rest of the group, where the model now has Tunisia finishing 4th and Sweden 3rd.
Match context and talking points
This fixture has already finished 1-5, so the notes below work as post-match context alongside the final score. The model currently places Tunisia 4th in Group F and Sweden 3rd, making the result relevant to qualification pressure and margin for error in later games.
Tunisia's main strengths are Defensive organization and Low-block discipline, while the chief concern to watch is Limited goal threat and Squad turnover. For Sweden, the standout qualities are Isak-Gyökeres attack and Set-piece threat, with Defensive stability and Limited preparation time the area to monitor.
Stylistically, the two sides contrast. Tunisia: Compact and well-drilled, defending in numbers and threatening on the break. Sweden: Structured, physical and effective, strong in the air and on set pieces.
Strength comparison
Sweden are the stronger side on our ratings, by 169 points.
Team data for this matchup
- FIFA rank
- 45th
- Head coach
- Sami Trabelsi
- Key player
- Hannibal Mejbri
- Qualified
- CAF (Africa)
- Best World Cup
- Group stage
Overview: Tunisia enter WC26 as a defensively reliable North African side looking to finally convert qualification consistency into a knockout berth.
World Cup history: Tunisia are making their seventh World Cup appearance and third in a row. They made history in 1978 as the first African team to win a World Cup match but have never reached the knockout stage.
Recent form: Tunisia qualified from CAF with an outstanding defensive campaign.
2026 angle: Their Group F route will likely depend on keeping matches tight against Sweden, Japan and the Netherlands. Scoring enough to punish opponents remains the obvious swing factor.
- Defensive organization
- Low-block discipline
- Tournament experience
- Limited goal threat
- Squad turnover
- FIFA rank
- 38th
- Head coach
- Graham Potter
- Key player
- Alexander Isak
- Qualified
- UEFA play-offs
- Best World Cup
- Runners-up (1958)
Overview: Sweden return to the World Cup with a forward line led by Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres.
World Cup history: Sweden's best World Cup finish was runner-up as host in 1958, and they also finished third in 1994. WC26 is their first finals appearance since reaching the 2018 quarter-finals.
Recent form: Sweden's qualifying path was turbulent: they struggled in group play before reaching the tournament through the playoff route.
2026 angle: In Group F, Sweden can hurt teams through direct attacks and elite striker movement. The concern is whether they have stabilized enough after reaching the tournament the hard way.
- Isak-Gyökeres attack
- Set-piece threat
- Direct transitions
- Defensive stability
- Limited preparation time