🇵🇦 Panama
Rating · Rank #41
Croatia 🇭🇷
Rating · Rank #13
Draw share: 9%. Model: Elo result distribution + Poisson score reference, re-calibrated after each played match. This site provides football data analysis for sports discussion only. It does not provide betting advice, gambling tips, odds, bookmaker links, or guaranteed outcomes.
Match preview
Panama and Croatia have played their Group L fixture, finishing 0–1. The pre-match model reference was 0–2, with the model getting the result right.
The result re-calibrates both ratings (Panama 1636, Croatia 1906) and feeds the projections for the rest of the group, where the model now has Panama finishing 4th and Croatia 2nd.
Match context and talking points
This fixture has already finished 0-1, so the notes below work as post-match context alongside the final score. The model currently places Panama 4th in Group L and Croatia 2nd, making the result relevant to qualification pressure and margin for error in later games.
Panama's main strengths are Organized defending and CONCACAF qualifying confidence, while the chief concern to watch is Limited World Cup scoring record and Step up in opponent quality. For Croatia, the standout qualities are Midfield control and Tournament experience, with Aging leaders and Pace in defensive transitions the area to monitor.
Stylistically, the two sides contrast. Panama: Combative and organised, competing through togetherness and set pieces. Croatia: Midfield-driven and tactically mature, controlling games through technical central players.
Strength comparison
Croatia are the stronger side on our ratings, by 270 points.
Team data for this matchup
- FIFA rank
- 34th
- Head coach
- Thomas Christiansen
- Key player
- Adalberto Carrasquilla
- Qualified
- CONCACAF
- Best World Cup
- Group stage (2018)
Overview: Panama are a competitive CONCACAF side returning for their second World Cup with a pragmatic structure and a chance to improve on 2018.
World Cup history: Panama made their World Cup debut in 2018 and lost all three group matches. The 2026 tournament is their second appearance and first since Russia.
Recent form: Panama qualified by topping Group A in the third round of CONCACAF qualifying and also reached the Copa America 2024 quarter-finals.
2026 angle: In Group L, Panama are the underdog against England, Croatia and Ghana, but the expanded format gives them incentive to chase a first World Cup win. Their opening match against Ghana is likely their most important opportunity.
- Organized defending
- CONCACAF qualifying confidence
- Direct wide play
- Limited World Cup scoring record
- Step up in opponent quality
- FIFA rank
- 11th
- Head coach
- Zlatko Dalić
- Key player
- Luka Modrić
- Qualified
- UEFA (Europe)
- Best World Cup
- Runners-up (2018)
Overview: Croatia remain a technically secure, tournament-savvy side shaped by midfield control, experienced leadership and a strong competitive culture.
World Cup history: Croatia were World Cup runners-up in 2018 and finished third in 1998 and 2022. Their modern World Cup record is among the strongest of any mid-sized football nation.
Recent form: Croatia qualified by winning UEFA Group L.
2026 angle: Group L places Croatia in a high-profile opener against England and winnable fixtures against Ghana and Panama. Their ceiling depends on whether the aging core still has enough intensity for another deep run.
- Midfield control
- Tournament experience
- Composure under pressure
- Aging leaders
- Pace in defensive transitions