WC26 Analysis
Full time Jun 14, 01:00 UTC
Team A

🇭🇹 Haiti

Rating 1540 · Rank #48

FT 0:1 · Ref 0:2 · result side matched
0:1
Team B

Scotland

Rating 1729 · Rank #34

Model result distribution
5%
16%
79%
Haiti win Draw Scotland win
Expected goals 0.40 : 2.20 Haiti / Scotland
Model result share 5% · 16% · 79% Haiti / Draw / Scotland
Power rating 1540 : 1729 Current model rating
World rank #48 : #34 Among 48 teams

Draw share: 16%. Model: Elo result distribution + Poisson score reference, re-calibrated after each played match. This site provides football data analysis for sports discussion only. It does not provide betting advice, gambling tips, odds, bookmaker links, or guaranteed outcomes.

Match preview

Haiti and Scotland have played their Group C fixture, finishing 0–1. The pre-match model reference was 0–2, with the model getting the result right.

The result re-calibrates both ratings (Haiti 1540, Scotland 1729) and feeds the projections for the rest of the group, where the model now has Haiti finishing 4th and Scotland 3rd.

Match context and talking points

This fixture has already finished 0-1, so the notes below work as post-match context alongside the final score. The model currently places Haiti 4th in Group C and Scotland 3rd, making the result relevant to qualification pressure and margin for error in later games.

Haiti's main strengths are Counterattacking threat and Diaspora support, while the chief concern to watch is Logistical disruption and Underdog depth. For Scotland, the standout qualities are Midfield work rate and Set-piece quality, with Limited World Cup pedigree and Tough group finish the area to monitor.

Stylistically, the two sides contrast. Haiti: Technical and spirited, playing with flair and Caribbean rhythm. Scotland: Committed, hard-working and spirited, with intensity and set-piece threat.

Strength comparison

Haiti 1540
1729 Scotland

Scotland are the stronger side on our ratings, by 189 points.

Team data for this matchup

🇭🇹 Haiti
World rank #48 - Rating 1540
Key facts
FIFA rank
82nd
Head coach
Sébastien Migné
Key player
Duckens Nazon
Qualified
CONCACAF
Best World Cup
Group stage (1974)

Overview: Haiti are one of the tournament's most compelling returnees, built around resilience, diaspora talent and direct attacking moments.

World Cup history: Haiti's only previous World Cup appearance was in 1974, when they exited in the first round. Their 2026 qualification ends a 52-year wait.

Recent form: Haiti qualified directly by finishing first in Group C of the final round of Concacaf qualifying.

2026 angle: Drawn with Brazil, Morocco and Scotland, Haiti will likely need a compact defensive plan and efficient counterattacks to compete. The Scotland opener is their clearest early chance to put points on the board.

Strengths
  • Counterattacking threat
  • Diaspora support
  • Duckens Nazon scoring
Concerns
  • Logistical disruption
  • Underdog depth
Scotland
World rank #34 - Rating 1729
Key facts
FIFA rank
42nd
Head coach
Steve Clarke
Key player
Scott McTominay
Qualified
UEFA (group winner)
Best World Cup
Group stage

Overview: Scotland return to the World Cup with a hard-running, midfield-led team.

World Cup history: Scotland are back at the finals for the first time since 1998 and are making their ninth World Cup appearance. They have never progressed beyond the first round or group stage.

Recent form: Scotland qualified by winning their UEFA group, sealing the place with a dramatic 4-2 victory over Denmark.

2026 angle: The expanded format gives Scotland a better chance to end their long wait for knockout football. Their midfield experience and set-piece quality need to translate into points early against Haiti.

Strengths
  • Midfield work rate
  • Set-piece quality
  • Back-three familiarity
Concerns
  • Limited World Cup pedigree
  • Tough group finish