Group L
Jun 17, 20:00 UTC
⚽ England
vs
Croatia 🇭🇷
1:0
Predicted most-likely scoreline
| Metric | England | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| Power rating (current) | 2020 | 1920 |
| World rank | #6 | #11 |
| Expected goals | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Win probability | 61% | 16% |
Draw probability: 23%. Model: Elo win expectancy + Poisson scoreline, re-calibrated after each played match. Entertainment only — not betting advice.
Strength comparison
England are the stronger side on our ratings, by 100 points.
The case for each side
⚽ England
World #6 · Rating 2020 · UEFA
World Cup winners in 1966, with recent deep runs including the 2018 semi-final.
🇭🇷 Croatia
World #11 · Rating 1920 · UEFA
World Cup finalists in 2018 and third-place finishers in 1998 and 2022.